Health+Security+&+Wellbeing

== //Image:Dust Storm Broken Hill 2009 by S.Olsen// **How the climate change has been taken into account e.g. in Australia and South America from the point of view of human and society health, welfare and security?**

Briefing Summary Review Australia and South America


by Paula Williams and Susanne Olsen
 * Presentation Slideshow - Australia and South America**

=//__January- February 2009 Australia:__//= ====This summer of 2009 has given us a terrifying glimpse into life on a warming planet. More than 200 people tragically passed away in the Victorian bushfires following an unprecedented 2 -week heat wave. In Queensland, the clean up is continuing after devastating floods affecting more than half the state and caused damage worth more than $210 million. Australia has always had harsh weather, but the truth is, climate change will bring more frequent and more extreme weather events. We can not erase the tragedies that have alread occured, but we do have a small window of opportunity to take action to prevent runaway climate change. We are in the midst of a climate emergency. it has been speculated that this year is our last chance to secure a strong global agreement to cut emissions. Our actions in 2009 will define the future that we leave our children.====
 * Summary of Countries' responses to Climatic Change by Williams & Olsen 2009**

__How to avert Climate catastrophe we urgently need__:

 * Australia to commit to halve its' greenhouse pollution within the next decade and stop undermining the global climate negotiations ahead of December's crucial meeting in Kobenhavn.
 * An energy revolution to replace polluting coal with 100% renewables within a decade-creating tens of thousands of green jobs eg green skills in the trades and general vocational educational and training (VET) sector.

=== [|International Polar Year spurs critical research on global warming – UN agency]=== ====On **25th February 2009** – Research produced during the //__International Polar Year 2007-2008__// shows clearly that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctic are losing mass, providing a critical boost to knowledge of global warming, the United Nations’ climate agency said today. A freshening of the bottom water near Antarctica is consistent with increased ice melt from that continent and could affect ocean circulation, the research finds. The report also identified large pools of carbon stored as methane in permafrost which, if thawed, threatens to become another massive source of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. This has enormous implications for the rest of the globe. This study will be concentrating on two countries to this effect **Australia** and **South America.**====

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By 2020, significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur in some ecologically rich sites, including the New Zealand, Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. By 2030, water security problems are projected to intensify in southern and eastern Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and some eastern regions.=====

====By 2030, production from agriculture and forestry is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However, in New Zealand, initial benefits are projected in some other regions.====

==== By 2050, ongoing coastal development and population growth in some areas of Australia and New Zealand are projected to exacerbate risks from **sea level rise** and increases in the severity and **frequency of storms** and **coastal flooding.** ====

This has already started to occur in Australia - Compare sea surface temperature February /March 2001 to same time in 2009 [|/]




__Dramatic climate changes__
====Note in the diagram above from [|http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/archives/SST] the differences in 8 years 2001to 2009 with the rise in sea surface temperature the red zone has expanded much further across and south than before. The yellow zones also much greater. In February and March in 2009 the northern Australia in [|Queensland floods] while in south eastern Australia in Victoria burns .====

South America
==== By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. ====

There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America.
====Productivity of some important crops is projected to decrease and livestock productivity to decline, with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones, soybean yields are projected to increase. Overall, the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase (TS; medium confidence)====

**Hotspots on the Globe**
Figure 13.3. // Predicted 2000-2010 South American and Central American deforestation hotspots and diffuse deforestation areas //

**__Argentina: (Example)__**
====Rains have finally come to Argentina, but as in California, it may be too little, too late for many. The worst drought in a half-century has devastated this year’s corn crop, with yields down more than third from last year. An estimated 1.5 million cattle have been died. The economic tally? Over $5 billion. **With 0.6% of the world's population, Argentina accounts for 0.5% of global emissions** - an average of 3.7 tonnes of CO2 per person .====

====These emission levels are above those of Latin America and the Caribbean (table 4). If all countries in the world were to emit CO2 at levels similar to Argentina's, we would exceed our sustainable carbon budget by approximately 66%. High-income OECD countries meanwhile lead the league of "CO2 transgressors". With just 15% of the world’s population, they account for almost half of all emissions. If the entire world emitted like High-income OECD countries -an average of 13.2 tonnes of CO2 per person, we would be emitting 6 times our sustainable carbon budget. Argentina has signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol. As a non-Annex I Party to the Protocol, Argentina is not bound by specific targets for greenhouse gas emissions. See other South American statistics form the [|**Human Development Report**] **below**==== (MtCO2) || CO2 emissions annual change (%) |||| CO2 emissions share of world total (%) || Population share (%) |||| CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2) ||
 * **Table 4: Carbon dioxide emissions** ||
 * |||| Total emissions
 * **CO2 emitters** || **1990** || **2004** || **1990-2004** || **1990** || **2004** || **2004** || **1990** || **2004** ||
 * United States || 4,818.3 || 6,045.8 || 1.8 || 21.2 || 20.9 || 4.6 || 19.3 || 20.6 ||
 * China || 2,398.9 || 5,007.1 || 7.8 || 10.6 || 17.3 || 20.2 || 2.1 || 3.8 ||
 * Russian Federation || 1,984.1 || 1,524.1 || -1.9 || 8.8 || 5.3 || 2.2 || 13.4 || 10.6 ||
 * Mexico || 413.3 || 437.8 || 0.4 || 1.8 || 1.5 || 1.6 || 5.0 || 4.2 ||
 * Brazil || 209.5 || 331.6 || 4.2 || 0.9 || 1.1 || 2.9 || 1.4 || 1.8 ||
 * Argentina || 109.7 || 141.7 || 2.1 || 0.5 || 0.5 || 0.6 || 3.4 || 3.7 ||
 * Trinidad and Tobago || 16.9 || 32.5 || 6.6 || 0.1 || 0.1 || 0.0 || 13.9 || 24.9 ||
 * Paraguay || 2.3 || 4.2 || 6.1 || 0.0 || 0.0 || 0.1 || 0.5 || 0.7 ||
 * Bahamas || 1.9 || 2.0 || 0.2 || 0.0 || 0.0 || 0.0 || 7.6 || 6.7 ||
 * Haiti || 1.0 || 1.8 || 5.5 || 0.0 || 0.0 || 0.1 || 0.1 || 0.2 ||
 * **Global aggregates** ||
 * High-income OECD || 10,055.4 || 12,137.5 || 1.5 || 44.3 || 41.9 || 14.3 || 12.0 || 13.2 ||
 * Latin America and the Caribbean || 1,087.7 || 1,422.6 || 2.2 || 4.8 || 4.9 || 8.5 || 2.5 || 2.6 ||
 * Low human development || 77.6 || 161.7 || 7.7 || 0.3 || 0.6 || 7.8 || 0.3 || 0.3 ||
 * World || 22,702.5 || 28,982.7 || 2.0 || 100.0 || 100.0 || 100.0 || 4.3 || 4.5 ||

(Argentina was mentioned in the Report in page 94.)

**Australia:**
Roughly 40% of the harvest, including $13.5 in exports sold mostly to Asia and the Middle-East, comes from the drought-plagued Murray Darling basin. Irrigated crops such as rice and grapes have been particularly had hit, but even native eucalyptus trees have taken a hit, with a staggering 80% stressed or dead. Water reserves are at just 16% of capacity. To make matters worse, algae are blooming and fish are dying in the warmth of shallower waters.

(MtCO2) || CO2 emissions annual change (%) |||| CO2 emissions share of world total (%) || Population share (%) |||| CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2) ||
 * With 0.3% of the world's population, Australia accounts for 1.1% of global emissions** - an average of 16.2 tonnes of CO2 per person . These emission levels are above those of High-income OECD (table 3). If all countries in the world were to emit CO2 at levels similar to Australia's, we would exceed our sustainable carbon budget by approximately 628%. Australia has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
 * **Table 3: Carbon dioxide emissions** ||
 * |||| Total emissions
 * CO2 emitters || 1990 || 2004 || 1990-2004 || 1990 || 2004 || 2004 || 1990 || 2004 ||
 * United States || 4,818.3 || 6,045.8 || 1.8 || 21.2 || 20.9 || 4.6 || 19.3 || 20.6 ||
 * China || 2,398.9 || 5,007.1 || 7.8 || 10.6 || 17.3 || 20.2 || 2.1 || 3.8 ||
 * Russian Federation || 1,984.1 || 1,524.1 || -1.9 || 8.8 || 5.3 || 2.2 || 13.4 || 10.6 ||
 * Japan || 1,070.7 || 1,257.2 || 1.2 || 4.7 || 4.3 || 2.0 || 8.7 || 9.9 ||
 * Australia || 278.5 || 326.6 || 1.2 || 1.2 || 1.1 || 0.3 || 16.3 || 16.2 ||
 * Portugal || 42.3 || 58.9 || 2.8 || 0.2 || 0.2 || 0.2 || 4.3 || 5.6 ||
 * Switzerland || 42.7 || 40.4 || -0.4 || 0.2 || 0.1 || 0.1 || 6.2 || 5.4 ||
 * Luxembourg || 9.9 || 11.3 || 1.0 || 0.0 || 0.0 || 0.0 || 25.9 || 25.0 ||
 * **Global aggregates** ||
 * High-income OECD || 10,055.4 || 12,137.5 || 1.5 || 44.3 || 41.9 || 14.3 || 12.0 || 13.2 ||
 * Low human development || 77.6 || 161.7 || 7.7 || 0.3 || 0.6 || 7.8 || 0.3 || 0.3 ||
 * World || 22,702.5 || 28,982.7 || 2.0 || 100.0 || 100.0 || 100.0 || 4.3 || 4.5 ||

Reference: Australia was mentioned in the Report in pages 10, 41, 43, 48, 53, 54, 58, 61, 69, 104, 114, 122, 125, 128, 137, and 138. IPCC - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change []

__**Argentina and Australia Relationship**

Visit [|Outstanding issues]__

==== With the consolidation of democracy in Argentina bilateral relationships with Australia have been substantially strengthened. Significant opportunities were opened to explore for mutual political cooperation and the promotion of business. From the political point of view both countries share a common standing in defending the United Nations System, promoting human rights, participating in peace missions under the UN, and pursuing the disarming and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. ====

==== Both countries are active members of the **Antarctic Treaty**, The **Valdivia Group** for preservation of the environment in the Southern Hemisphere, and the **Kyoto Conference** on [|Climate Change]. //Both countries have similarities in their geography and present parallel patterns of historical evolution. From the geographical point of view both have huge territories, with different climates, from subtropical to temperate, with mining resources and fertile lands appropriate for agriculture and cattle breeding. Both have developed an important industrial and services infrastructure. // ====

**Peru and Chile Forecast**
=Niño1+2= The Niño1+2 SST anomaly index is an indicator of far eastern tropical Pacific El Niño conditions, off the coasts of Peru and Chile. It is calculated with SSTs in the box 90°W - 80°W, 10°S - 0°.

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
On the regional level, via US State Department, the programme supported bi-lateral climate agreements with Australia and New Zealand for the [|Pacific Islands regional GCOS programme]. With the Pacific being of critical importance to climate (e.g., source of El Nino) and given the general sparseness of data from this critical climate region, a strong regional program in support of GCOS is a benefit to the global climate observing effort. The requirements of GCOS for climate observations are specified by the following scientific panels:
 * Surface, upper air, marine, meteorology and atmospheric chemistry composition - Atmospheric Observations Panel for Climate ([|AOPC])
 * Ocean climate - Ocean Observing Panel for Climate ([|OOPC])
 * Terrestrial climate - Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate ([|TOPC])

Visit : [|GSN/GUAN System Improvement]

[] Australia's National representative Michael Coughlan




The world population is encountering unfamiliar human-induced changes in the lower and middle atmospheres and worldwide depletion of various other natural systems (e.g. soil fertility, aquifers, ocean fisheries and biodiversity in general). Despite early recognition that such changes would affect economic activities, infrastructure and managed ecosystems, there has been less awareness that such large-scale environmental change would weaken the supports for healthy life. Fortunately that is now beginning to change. 

//This diagram represents a comprehensive relationship between global climate change and human population health. //

[[image:humanissue_GCC.JPG align="center"]] 


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Global climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events: tropical cyclones may increase as sea surface waters warm; floods may increase as the hydrological cycle intensifies; and heat-waves may increase in mid-continental locations. As discussed in detail in later chapters, a change in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves and cold spells would affect seasonal patterns of morbidity and mortality. The production of various air pollutants and of allergenic spores and pollens would be affected by warmer and wetter conditions. Climate change also is expected to affect health via various indirect pathways, including the patterns of infectious diseases; the =====

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yield of food-producing systems on land and at sea; the availability of freshwater; and, by contributing to biodiversity loss, may destabilize =====

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and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends ===== 

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Resources:

 * Visit **John Moore's** Introductory video on world effects to global warming. mms:\\media.oulu.fi\ACIA_Impacts_of_a_Warming_Climate
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 * []
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 * Parkinson, A : Climatic Changes affecting Health [[file:7Parkinson.pdf]]
 * [|World Health Report 2007]

Visit: [|World Health Organisation] The **__World Health Organization__** defines health as a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. Eating right, exercising, and sleeping well play an equal role in the prevention of infections and diseases. However, a good sense of self, a loving support network, and the potential for continued personal growth is also important to our overall wellbeing.

References:

 * ACIA, 2004 [|//Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment//]. Cambridge University Press.
 * IPCC, 2007: [|//Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis//]. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Climate Change and Water. IPCC Technical Report Paper VI. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 8 - Human Health, Chapter 11 - Australia & New Zealand, Chapt 13 - Latin America
 * National Aeronautics and Space Administration. [|//Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Decline, Arctic Temperatures Continue to Rise In 2005//]. Accessed [|6 September] [|2007]
 * Reference for South America climate changes []
 * Murray-Darling Basin Authority []
 * Sam the Koala [] Bush fire fauna victims
 * Recovery []


 * __Case studies:__**

1 Woodward, A. et al. Tropospheric ozone: respiratory effects and Australian airquality goals //. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">49: 401–407 (1995). 2 <span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">Petroeschevsky, A. et al. Associations between outdoor air pollution and hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia. //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Italic','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Italic;">Archives of Environmental Health //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">56: 37–52(2001) <span style="font-size: 12pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">. 3. <span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">Pittock, A.B. Coral reef and environmental change: adaptation to what? //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Italic','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Italic;">American ////<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Italic','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Italic;">Zoologist //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">39: 10–29 (1999 4. <span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">Parmenter, R.R. et al. Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Italic','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Italic;">. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">61814–821 (1999) //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Italic','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Italic;">. //<span style="font-size: 12pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">), 5. <span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">Toledo-Tito, J. Impacto en la Salud del Fenomenno de El Niño 1982–83 en le Peru.In: //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Italic','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Italic;">Proceedings of the Health Impacts of the El Niño Phenomenon, Central American Workshop //<span style="font-size: 9pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Meridien-Roman','serif'; mso-bidi-font-family: Meridien-Roman;">held in San Jose Costa Rica 3–5 November 1997. Washington, DC, USA, Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization, (in Spanish),1999. <span style="font-size: 12pt; color: #292526; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">


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